Redc Research

RED C & Polling

RED C Research & Marketing Ltd is the fastest growing independent market research company in Ireland, and their founders have a wealth of experience in conducting political polling both in Ireland and the UK.

The Managing Director of RED C, Richard Colwell, was at the heart of developing the innovative polling techniques conducted by the well known British polling company ICM Research for the Conservative Party, the Guardian and the BBC during the 1997 British General Election.

Monthly Polls set the Trend for Election 2007

REDC are delighted to have become the "Taoiseach's most reliable pollster" in the run up to Election 2007, having undertaken monthly and then weekly tracking in conjunction with The Sunday Business Post.

Being the first company to move political opinion polling from the occasional dip to full tracking had a major impact. It has allowed us and those interested in politics to look more closely at underlying trends, enabling us to uncover real insights as to where the next election may be won or lost.

We complimented this with focus groups among floating voters, that gave a real insight into potential voter behaviour to the wider public; and a range of local constituency polls conducted for the Thomas Crosbie Holdings local newspaper group.

Our polls running up to the election accurately predicted shifts in voter behaviour, in particular the late swing seen to Fianna Fail. And while no pre-election poll is supposed to be a prediction, but rather a snapshot of opinion at that time, our final poll was accurate within the margins of sample error allowed for even though this shift was still occurring.

Of the twelve campaign polls conducted by different companies, RED C had four of the five most accurate pre-election polls in terms of average error according to Dr Michael Marsh, head of politics at Trinity. With our final poll having an average sample error of just 1.4%, which is better than the most accurate poll in 2002.

Our local constituency polls conducted in the two months before the election were also judged by Dr Michael Marsh, head of politics at Trinity, to be the most accurate of all pollsters, we believe because of the quality of sampling, fieldwork, and because of the past vote weighting techniques applied.

Since the election we have conducted a comprehensive recall poll that sheds further light on what happened among voters as they approached election day and signals the importance of Bertie Ahern performance in voter behaviour.

Core to RED C's approach is the desire to utilise the telephone methodology, ensure the most effective question design/format and develop past vote weighting techniques used in the UK and across Europe to better measure and understand the ever increasing number of claimed undecided voters in Ireland.

The key to the success of the telephone polls is the fact that the base sample appears to be more representative than those achieved using a face to face quota approach. The accuracy of the unadjusted voting intention figures, vs those seen in the face to face quota samples, confirms that the telephone methodology provides a more accurate sample of voters, as the face to face method remains inherently biased towards Fianna Fail voters.

The fact that in some cases these face to face figures are often "adjusted" by up to 5% provides evidence that face to face pollsters themselves recognise that their base poll results are biased to Fianna Fail.

RED C now conducts public and private polling for a number of clients, ranging from nationwide surveys concentrating on 1st preference figures, to individual constituency surveys including transfer analysis.