General Election 2020: Where does each party support come from?

Published by: Posted by RED C RESEARCH


RED C have tried to analyse a little bit more where each of the main parties support is coming from. In particular to better understand the rise is support for Sinn Fein.

Below we have developed a Sankey chart of voter support, based on who those surveyed said they voted in the last general Election in 2016, and compared this to who they claim that they intend to vote for in General Election 2020.

One word of warning is that sample sizes are quite small for some of this analysis, so the results here should be treated with caution.  The second part to bear in mind is that people are notoriously bad at voter recall after this length of time, so some of the recall may not be 100% accurate, and a large chunk simply don’t remember how they voted in 2016.

But they do help us to somewhat understand the complexity of voter movement between elections.  To use the chart below click your mouse on the party you want to understand (either for GE20 or GE16), and it will highlight where those votes have moved to, or been taken from.

Made with Flourish

For Sinn Fein it is interesting to note how well they do at securing both “new voters” (i.e. those that didn’t vote in 2016) but also those who voted for smaller parties or Independent candidates in 2016.  They also do quite well at stealing Fianna Fail voters, and to a lessor degree from Fine Gael.